I’m going to admit something that I’m slightly ashamed of. I love statistics. And inspired by Joe Mcelderry’s slightly unnecessary revelation of heterosexuality this week, I’ve decided that I should proudly put it out there.

Today, against all odds, Joe was beaten to Christmas number 1 by Rage Against The Machine. It’s actually the second time an X Factor winner hasn’t claimed the Christmas number 1: Steve Brookstein didn’t either back in 2004, although that was because Simon Cowell delayed the release by a week so that Band Aid 20 could secure the number 1. (I hope this kind of knowledge is establishing me as a credible expert when it comes to popular culture, Literary Agent Flatmate? Even if I fear the deep statistical analysis that is to come will excite only myself).

What’s interesting this year are Joe’s sales compared to not only RATM but also previous winners*:

1 Rage Against The Machine 503k
2 Joe McElderry 451k

Previous winner’s first week sales:

2005: Shayne Ward: 742k

2008: Alexandra Burke: 576k

2006: Leona Lewis: 571k (and the most downloaded song of 2006)

2007: Leon Jackson: 275k

2004: Steve Brookstein: 250k

So, Leona, Alex and Shayne would’ve all beaten RATM whilst the other three boys wouldn’t have**. Interesting. It’s the first indication that Joe’s probably not going to have the success Alex and Leona did; however, some consolation for him, he might do better than Leon.

Shayne’s massive sales reveal that these stats aren’t a definitive guide to future success. I still maintain, however, that Shayne’s success is underplayed: his sophomore album Breathless reached number 2, beating Kylie’s big comeback album “X”, and selling over 450k. The campaign was only stopped short when they didn’t bother to release a third single, for no real reason (or because Syco were fixated on Leona).

Here are two other interesting Reality TV first week sales:

Will Young: “Evergreen/Anything Is Possible” (week one sales of 1.1 million):

No-one since has got anywhere close to Will Young’s week one sales of his first single (he outsold Leon, Steve and Joe’s week one sales in his first day). Even more, this wasn’t even at Christmas. It seems the magic of the first Pop Idol, where enormous viewing figures translated directly into unprecidented sales, will never quite be recreated.

Girls Aloud: “Sound of the Underground” (week one sales of 213k)

The other extreme: the lowest sales of the lot and yet they are the act (along with Will) who have had longevity. The figures are possibly low as there were two singles out from the show that year, Girls Aloud and their rival boyband One True Voice, splitting sales. Also, the song is as unchristmassy as they come. But it was an important and inspired choice as it set the group up as releasing slightly edgy, credible pop songs as opposed to, say, Hear’say. Incidentally, will I ever forgive Girls Aloud for this? A song about how the internet and texting is killing us?

Considering this year the X Factor final got more viewers than ever before, with 6 million votes registered for Joe, his sales are surprisingly low. In fact, approximately 0.75% of those who voted for him bought the single this week. Two other fascinating things: his download sales are much lower than Alex’s, suggesting his fanbase are a significantly older/younger demographic who don’t normally buy singles. Which may cause him to struggle in the long term. Secondly, even during the biggest Christmas number one battle, he’s still not trended on Twitter. 

Possibly it’s the song choice: though is the Climb much worse than It’s My Goal? Joe’s PR machine this week has also been wildly misjudged: the first day Cowell came out with a vicious attack on RATM  (annoying people more), the next day he wheeled out Cheryl Cole. When that didn’t work, he made Alexandra say something. And then Joe announces that he has finally bothered to listen to his rival’s song and that he thinks it’s so bad that Rage Against The Machine wouldn’t have made it to bootcamp. Oh god.

Whilst I’m here, the X Factor weekly voting stats have been released again this year which makes me tragically happy. Apart from the hilarious jokes that you can make about different acts topping each other in various weeks, what it mainly reveals is that the British public is almost entirely mad. More to come on this later…

*I’ve tried to be objective in my comments on Joe this week, as a loving gesture to the Boyfriend  (Joe McElderry caused two arguments between us this weekend. I hope you’re proud Joe).

**Popular consensus is that it’s easier for a boy to win these shows over girls, due to the theory that it’s mainly women that vote and that they tend to vote for male acts they fancy, whilst hating other successful women (I’m looking at you, Housemate Who Voted For Calvin On Strictly 15 times This Weekend). What’s interesting is that the four most successful winners of these shows – arguably Leona, Alexandra, Girls Aloud and Will Young - include just one man. And a gay one at that. Maybe this is a whole blog piece in itself?